A Simple Prognostic Score for Critical COVID-19 Derived from Patients without Comorbidities Performs Well in Unselected Patients.

We aimed to search for laboratory predictors of critical COVID-19 in consecutive adults admitted in an academic center between 16 September 2020-20 December 2021. Patients were uniformly treated with low-molecular-weight heparin, and dexamethasone plus remdesivir when SpO2 < 94%. Among consecutive unvaccinated patients without underlying medical conditions (n = 241, 49 year-old median, 71% males), 22 (9.1%) developed critical disease and 2 died (0.8%). White-blood-cell counts, neutrophils, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, CRP, fibrinogen, ferritin, LDH and γ-GT at admission were each univariably associated with critical disease. ROC-defined cutoffs revealed that CRP > 61.8 mg/L, fibrinogen > 616.5 mg/dL and LDH > 380.5 U/L were each associated with critical disease development, independently of age, sex and days from symptom-onset. A score combining higher-than-cutoff CRP (0/2), LDH (0/1) and fibrinogen (0/1) predicted critical disease (AUC: 0.873, 95% CI: 0.820-0.926). This score performed well in an unselected patient cohort (n = 1228, 100% unvaccinated) predominantly infected by the alpha variant (AUC: 0.718, 95% CI: 0.683-0.753), as well as in a mixed cohort (n = 527, 65% unvaccinated) predominantly infected by the delta variant (AUC: 0.708, 95% CI: 0.656-0.760). Therefore, we propose that a combination of standard biomarkers of acute inflammatory response, cell death and hypercoagulability reflects the severity of COVID-19 per se independently of comorbidities, age and sex, being of value for risk stratification in unselected patients.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19: a large dual tertiary centre study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship of echocardiographic parameters, laboratory findings and clinical characteristics with in-hospital mortality in adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care units (ICU) in two large collaborating tertiary UK centres. DESIGN: Observational retrospective study. SETTING: The study was conducted in patients admitted to the ICU in two large tertiary centres in London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria were: (1) patients admitted to the ICU with a COVID-19 diagnosis over a period of 16 weeks. and (2) underwent a transthoracic echocardiogram on the first day of ICU admission as clinically indicated.No exclusion criteria applied.Three hundred patients were enrolled and completed the follow-up. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measure in this study was in-hospital mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 infection. RESULTS: Older age (HR: 1.027, 95% CI 1.007 to 1.047; p=0.008), left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction<35% (HR: 5.908, 95% CI 2.609 to 13.376; p<0.001), and peak C reactive protein (CRP) (HR: 1.002, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.004, p=0.001) were independently correlated with mortality in a multivariable Cox regression model. Following multiple imputation of variables with more than 5% missing values, random forest analysis was applied to the imputed data. Right ventricular (RV) basal diameter (RVD1), RV mid-cavity diameter (RVD2), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, RV systolic pressure, hypertension, RV dysfunction, troponin level on admission, peak CRP, creatinine level on ICU admission, body mass index and age were found to have a high relative importance (> 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with COVID-19 in the ICU, both severely impaired LV function and impaired RV function may have adverse prognostic implications, but older age and inflammatory markers appear to have a greater impact. A combination of echocardiographic and laboratory investigations as well as demographic and clinical characteristics appears appropriate for risk stratification in patients with COVID-19 who are admitted to the ICU.

Prognostic factors for mortality, intensive care unit and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of underlying medical conditions as prognostic factors for adverse outcomes due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including death, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation within three separate settings (community, hospital and ICU). Cohort studies that reported at least age and gender-adjusted data from Europe were identified through a search of peer-reviewed articles published until 11 June 2021 in Ovid Medline and Embase. Results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and absolute risk differences in deaths per 1000 COVID-19 patients. FINDINGS: We included 88 cohort studies with age-/gender-adjusted data from 6 653 207 SARS-CoV-2 patients from Europe. Hospital-based mortality was associated with high and moderate certainty evidence for solid organ tumours, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, liver disease and obesity, while a higher risk, albeit with low certainty, was noted for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. Community-based mortality was associated with a history of heart failure, stroke, diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Evidence of high/moderate certainty revealed a strong association between hospitalisation for COVID-19 and solid organ transplant recipients, sleep apnoea, diabetes, stroke and liver disease. INTERPRETATION: The results confirmed the strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission. Prioritisation of booster vaccinations and the implementation of nonpharmaceutical protective measures for these populations may contribute to a reduction in COVID-19 mortality, ICU and hospital admissions.

Clinical implications of vascular dysfunction in acute and convalescent COVID-19: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that endothelial dysfunction is implicated in the pathogenesis and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this context, vascular impairment in COVID-19 might be associated with clinical manifestations and could refine risk stratification in these patients. METHODS: This systematic review aims to synthesize current evidence on the frequency and the prognostic value of vascular dysfunction during acute and post-recovery COVID-19. After systematically searching the MEDLINE, clinicaltrials.gov and the Cochrane Library from 1 December 2019 until 05 March 2022, we identified 24 eligible studies with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 and a thorough examination of vascular function. Flow-mediated dilation (FMD) was assessed in 5 and 12 studies in acute and post-recovery phase respectively; pulse wave velocity (PWV) was the marker of interest in three studies in the acute and four studies in the post-recovery phase. RESULTS: All studies except for one in the acute and in the post-recovery phase showed positive association between vascular dysfunction and COVID-19 infection. Endothelial dysfunction in two studies and increased arterial stiffness in three studies were related to inferior survival in COVID-19. DISCUSSION: Overall, a detrimental effect of COVID-19 on markers of endothelial function and arterial stiffness that could persist even for months after the resolution of the infection and provide prognostic value was congruent across published studies. Further research is warranted to elucidate clinical implications of this association.

The Additive Value of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance in Convalescent COVID-19 Patients.

In COVID-19 the development of severe viral pneumonia that is coupled with systemic inflammatory response triggers multi-organ failure and is of major concern. Cardiac involvement occurs in nearly 60% of patients with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions and heralds worse clinical outcome. Diagnoses carried out in the acute phase of COVID-19 rely upon increased levels of circulating cardiac injury biomarkers and transthoracic echocardiography. These diagnostics, however, were unable to pinpoint the mechanisms of cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients. Identifying the main features of cardiac injury remains an urgent yet unmet need in cardiology, given the potential clinical consequences. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) provides an unparalleled opportunity to gain a deeper insight into myocardial injury given its unique ability to interrogate the properties of myocardial tissue. This endeavor is particularly important in convalescent COVID-19 patients as many continue to experience chest pain, palpitations, dyspnea and exertional fatigue, six or more months after the acute illness. This review will provide a critical appraisal of research on cardiovascular damage in convalescent adult COVID-19 patients with an emphasis on the use of CMR and its value to our understanding of organ damage.

Clinical frailty, and not features of acute infection, is associated with late mortality in COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with excess mortality after hospital discharge. Identification of patients at increased risk of death following hospital discharge is needed to guide clinical monitoring and early intervention. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of early vs. late mortality in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A total of 471 patients with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 were followed up for 9 months [median (inter-quartile range) of follow-up time: 271 (14) days] after hospital admission. COVID-19-related signs and symptoms, laboratory features, co-morbidities, Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (4C) mortality and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) scores were analysed by logistic regression for association with early (28 day) vs. late mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the discriminative value of 4C and CFS scores for early vs. late mortality. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients died within 28 days from hospital admission. Of the remaining 351 patients, 41 died within the next 8 months. Respiratory failure, systemic inflammation, and renal impairment were associated with early mortality, while active cancer and dementia were associated with late mortality, after adjustment for age and sex. 4C mortality score and CFS were associated with both early [odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval-CI): 4C: 1.34 (1.25-1.45); CFS: 1.49 (1.33-1.66)] and late [OR (95% CI): 4C: 1.23 (1.12-1.36); CFS: 2.04 (1.62-2.56)] mortality. After adjustment for CFS, the association between 4C and late mortality was lost. By ROC analysis, 4C mortality score was superior to CFS for 28 day mortality [area under the curve (AUC) (95% CI): 0.779 (0.732-0.825) vs. 0.723 (0.673-0.773), respectively; P = 0.039]. In contrast, CFS had higher predictive value for late mortality compared with 4C mortality score [AUC (95% CI): 0.830 (0.776-0.883) vs. 0.724 (0.650-0.798), respectively; P = 0.007]. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, late mortality in COVID-19 patients is more strongly associated with premorbid clinical frailty than with severity of the acute infection phase.

Real-Life Effectiveness and Safety of Baricitinib as Adjunctive to Standard-of-Care Treatment in Hospitalized Patients With Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic options for hospitalized patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (sCOVID-19) are limited. Preliminary data have shown promising results with baricitinib, but real-life experience is lacking. We assessed the safety and effectiveness of add-on baricitinib to standard-of-care (SOC) including dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with sCOVID-19. METHODS: This study is a 2-center, observational, retrospective cohort study of patients with sCOVID-19, comparing outcomes and serious events between patients treated with SOC versus those treated with SOC and baricitinib combination. RESULTS: We included 369 patients with sCOVID-19 (males 66.1%; mean age 65.2 years; median symptom duration 6 days). The SOC was administered in 47.7% and combination in 52.3%. Patients treated with the combination reached the composite outcome (intensive care unit [ICU] admission or death) less frequently compared with SOC (22.3% vs 36.9%, P = .002). Mortality rate was lower with the combination in the total cohort (14.7% vs 26.6%, P = .005), and ICU admission was lower in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (29.7% vs 44.8%, P = .03). By multivariable analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36-2.44, per 10-year increase), partial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = .52-0.68, per 10 units increase), and use of high-flow nasal cannula (OR = 0.34; 95% CI, .16-0.74) were associated with the composite outcome, whereas baricitinib use was marginally not associated with the composite outcome (OR = 0.52; 95% CI, .26-1.03). However, baricitinib use was found to be significant after inverse-probability weighted regression (OR = 0.93; 95% CI, .87-0.99). No difference in serious events was noted between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: In real-life settings, addition of baricitinib to SOC in patients hospitalized with sCOVID-19 is associated with decreased mortality without concerning safety signals.

Estimated pulse wave velocity improves risk stratification for all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure (p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores.

COVID-19 and myocarditis: a systematic review and overview of current challenges.

Myocardial inflammation in COVID-19 has been documented. Its pathogenesis is not fully elucidated, but the two main theories foresee a direct role of ACE2 receptor and a hyperimmune response, which may also lead to isolated presentation of COVID-19-mediated myocarditis. The frequency and prognostic impact of COVID-19-mediated myocarditis is unknown. This review aims to summarise current evidence on this topic. We performed a systematic review of MEDLINE and Cochrane Library (1/12/19-30/09/20). We also searched clinicaltrials.gov for unpublished studies testing therapies with potential implication for COVID-19-mediated cardiovascular complication. Eligible studies had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 and a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of myocarditis by ESC or WHO/ISFC criteria. Reports of 38 cases were included (26 male patients, 24 aged < 50 years). The first histologically proven case was a virus-negative lymphocytic myocarditis; however, biopsy evidence of myocarditis secondary to SARS-CoV-2 cardiotropism has been recently demonstrated. Histological data was found in 12 cases (8 EMB and 4 autopsies) and CMR was the main imaging modality to confirm a diagnosis of myocarditis (25 patients). There was a substantial variability in biventricular systolic function during the acute episode and in therapeutic regimen used. Five patients died in hospital. Cause-effect relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and myocarditis is difficult to demonstrate. However, current evidence demonstrates myocardial inflammation with or without direct cardiomyocyte damage, suggesting different pathophysiology mechanisms responsible of COVID-mediated myocarditis. Established clinical approaches should be pursued until future evidence support different actions. Large multicentre registries are advisable to elucidate further.

The relationship between cardiac injury, inflammation and coagulation in predicting COVID-19 outcome.

High sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) is a strong predictor of adverse outcome during SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, its determinants remain partially unknown. We aimed to assess the relationship between severity of inflammatory response/coagulation abnormalities and hsTnT in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We then explored the relevance of these pathways in defining mortality and complications risk and the potential effects of the treatments to attenuate such risk. In this single-center, prospective, observational study we enrolled 266 consecutive patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Primary endpoint was in-hospital COVID-19 mortality. hsTnT, even after adjustment for confounders, was associated with mortality. D-dimer and CRP presented stronger associations with hsTnT than PaO2. Changes of hsTnT, D-dimer and CRP were related; but only D-dimer was associated with mortality. Moreover, low molecular weight heparin showed attenuation of the mortality in the whole population, particularly in subjects with higher hsTnT. D-dimer possessed a strong relationship with hsTnT and mortality. Anticoagulation treatment showed greater benefits with regard to mortality. These findings suggest a major role of SARS-CoV-2 coagulopathy in hsTnT elevation and its related mortality in COVID-19. A better understanding of the mechanisms related to COVID-19 might pave the way to therapy tailoring in these high-risk individuals.

Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With COVID-19 and Acute Ischemic Stroke: The Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry.

Recent case-series of small size implied a pathophysiological association between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe large-vessel acute ischemic stroke. Given that severe strokes are typically associated with poor prognosis and can be very efficiently treated with recanalization techniques, confirmation of this putative association is urgently warranted in a large representative patient cohort to alert stroke clinicians, and inform pre- and in-hospital acute stroke patient pathways. We pooled all consecutive patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and acute ischemic stroke in 28 sites from 16 countries. To assess whether stroke severity and outcomes (assessed at discharge or at the latest assessment for those patients still hospitalized) in patients with acute ischemic stroke are different between patients with COVID-19 and non-COVID-19, we performed 1:1 propensity score matching analyses of our COVID-19 patients with non-COVID-19 patients registered in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne Registry between 2003 and 2019. Between January 27, 2020, and May 19, 2020, 174 patients (median age 71.2 years; 37.9% females) with COVID-19 and acute ischemic stroke were hospitalized (median of 12 patients per site). The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was 10 (interquartile range [IQR], 4-18). In the 1:1 matched sample of 336 patients with COVID-19 and non-COVID-19, the median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was higher in patients with COVID-19 (10 [IQR, 4-18] versus 6 [IQR, 3-14]), P=0.03; (odds ratio, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.08-2.65] for higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). There were 48 (27.6%) deaths, of which 22 were attributed to COVID-19 and 26 to stroke. Among 96 survivors with available information about disability status, 49 (51%) had severe disability at discharge. In the propensity score-matched population (n=330), patients with COVID-19 had higher risk for severe disability (median mRS 4 [IQR, 2-6] versus 2 [IQR, 1-4], P<0.001) and death (odds ratio, 4.3 [95% CI, 2.22-8.30]) compared with patients without COVID-19. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 associated ischemic strokes are more severe with worse functional outcome and higher mortality than non-COVID-19 ischemic strokes.

Predictors of adverse prognosis in COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of reliable outcome predictors in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is of paramount importance for improving patient's management. METHODS: A systematic review of literature was conducted until 24 April 2020. From 6843 articles, 49 studies were selected for a pooled assessment; cumulative statistics for age and sex were retrieved in 587 790 and 602 234 cases. Two endpoints were defined: (a) a composite outcome including death, severe presentation, hospitalization in the intensive care unit (ICU) and/or mechanical ventilation; and (b) in-hospital mortality. We extracted numeric data on patients' characteristics and cases with adverse outcomes and employed inverse variance random-effects models to derive pooled estimates. RESULTS: We identified 18 and 12 factors associated with the composite endpoint and death, respectively. Among those, a history of CVD (odds ratio (OR) = 3.15, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 2.26-4.41), acute cardiac (OR = 10.58, 5.00-22.40) or kidney (OR = 5.13, 1.78-14.83) injury, increased procalcitonin (OR = 4.8, 2.034-11.31) or D-dimer (OR = 3.7, 1.74-7.89), and thrombocytopenia (OR = 6.23, 1.031-37.67) conveyed the highest odds for the adverse composite endpoint. Advanced age, male sex, cardiovascular comorbidities, acute cardiac or kidney injury, lymphocytopenia and D-dimer conferred an increased risk of in-hospital death. With respect to the treatment of the acute phase, therapy with steroids was associated with the adverse composite endpoint (OR = 3.61, 95% CI 1.934-6.73), but not with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced age, comorbidities, abnormal inflammatory and organ injury circulating biomarkers captured patients with an adverse clinical outcome. Clinical history and laboratory profile may then help identify patients with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality.